Technical Analysis

What is Technical Analysis?

Technical Analysis is the forecasting of future financial price movements based on an examination of past price movements. Like weather forecasting, technical analysis does not result in absolute predictions about the future. Instead, technical analysis can help investors anticipate what is "likely" to happen to prices over time. Technical analysis uses a wide variety of charts that show price over time.

Oscillator: An indicator that determines when a market is in an overbought or oversold condition. When the oscillator reaches an upper extreme, the market is overbought. When the oscillator line reaches a lower exteme, the market is oversold.

Divergence: A situation that occurs when two lines on a chart move in opposite directions vertically. People often look for divergences by comparing a stock's direction to the direction of its RSI, its MACD or its Stochastic Oscillator. There are two kinds of divergences: positive and negative. A positive divergence occurs when the indicator moves higher while the stock is declining. A negative divergence occurs when the indicator moves lower while the stock is rising.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): An indicator developed by Gerald Appel that is calculated by subtracting the 26-period exponential moving average of a given security from its 12-period exponential moving average. By comparing moving averages, MACD displays trend following characteristics, and by plotting the difference of the moving averages as an oscillator, MACD displays momentum characteristics.

Relative Strength Index (RSI): A popular oscillator developed by Welles Wilder, Jr. and described in his self-published 1978 book "New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems". RSI is plotted on a vertical scale from 0 to 100. Values above 70 are considered overbought and values below 30, oversold. When prices are over 70 or below 30 and diverge from price action, a warning is given of a possible trend reversal.

Stochastic Oscillator: A momentum indicator developed by George Lane that measures the price of a security relative to the high/low range over a set period of time. The indicator oscillates between 0 and 100, with readings below 20 considered oversold and readings above 80 considered overbought. A 14-period Stochastic Oscillator reading of 30 would indicate that the current price was 30% above the lowest low of the last 14 days and 70% below the highest high. The Stochastic Oscillator can be used like any other oscillator by looking for overbought/oversold readings, positive/negative divergences and centerline crossovers.

Overbought: A technical condition that occurs when prices are considered too high and susceptible to a decline. Overbought conditions can be classified by analyzing the chart pattern or with indicators such as the Stochastic Oscillator and Relative Strength Index (RSI). A sharp advance from $15 to $30 in 2 weeks might lead a technician to believe that a security is overbought. Or, a security is sometimes considered overbought when the Stochastic Oscillator exceeds 80 and when the Relative Strength Index (RSI) exceeds 70. It is important to keep in mind that overbought is not necessarily the same as being bearish. It merely infers that the stock has risen too far too fast and might be due for a pullback.

Oversold: A technical condition that occurs when prices are considered too low and ripe for a rally. Oversold conditions can be classified by analyzing the chart pattern or with indicators such as the Stochastic Oscillator and Relative Strength Index (RSI). A sharp decline from 30 to 15 in 2 weeks might lead a technician to believe that a security is oversold. Or, a security is sometimes considered oversold when the Stochastic Oscillator is less than 20 and when the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is less than 30. It is important to keep in mind that oversold is not necessarily the same as being bullish. It merely infers that the security has fallen too far too fast and may be due for a reaction rally.

Fibonacci Numbers: The Fibonacci number sequence (1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144,...) is constructed by adding the first two numbers to arrive at the third. The ratio of any number to the next number is 61.8 percent, which is a popular Fibonacci retracement number. The inverse of 61.8 percent is 38.2 percent, also used as a Fibonacci retracement number. It is the ratio of the Fibonacci sequence that is important and valuable, not the actual numbers in the sequence.

Rounding Bottom: Also known as a saucer bottom, it is a reversal chart pattern representing a long consolidation period that turns from a bearish bias to a bullish bias.

Put/Call Ratio: Based on CBOE statistics (http://www.cboe.com/), the Put/Call Ratio equals the total number of puts divided by the total number of calls. When more puts are traded than calls, the ratio will exceed 1. As an indicator, the Put/Call Ratio is used to measure market sentiment. When the ratio gets too low, it indicates that call volume is high relative to put volume and the market may be overly bullish or complacent. When the ratio gets too high, it indicates that put volume is high relative to call volume and the market may be overly bearish or in panic.

Bull Bear Ratio: The Investor's Intelligence market sentiment indicator which shows the relationship between bullish and bearish advisors. It is interpreted as a contrary indicator, meaning that if it reflects extreme bullishness, the market is probably at a top.